“Quick Commerce is a bubble that can burst anytime.” — Recent comment by the Blinkit founder
Yet, paradoxically:
~Instamart is in the process of raising Rs 10,000 Cr
~Zepto is reportedly filing its DHRP next week
So the real question isn’t funding. Its structure.
Can all three survive, or is this a classic “winner-takes-all” market? Let’s look at the maths
Market Reality (India)
~Top 180 cities → 318M people | ~80M households
~60% can afford Quick Commerce → 48M households
~1.5 users/House hold × 10 orders/month
~24M orders per day (industry ceiling)
Supply Side Maths
~1 dark store ≈ 2,000 orders/day
~India can support ~12,000 dark stores
~Current footprint: ~8,500–9,000 dark stores
We’re already at ~70% of today’s capacity
The Real Battle – This is not about demand expansion anymore. It’s a zero-sum fight for the same 24M daily orders.
Customers are not sticky. They hop platforms based on: Discounts/ ETA/ Availability
Unit Economics Reality
~Contribution Margin: ~Rs 10/order
~Annual CM: Rs 24 Cr/day × 365 = Rs 8760 Cr
Assuming very optimistic numbers:
~EBITDA margin: 5–8%
~EBITDA: Rs 4500–10,000 Cr
At 20 multiple × EBITDA: Implied market cap ≈ Rs 1.75 lakh Cr (~$21B)
The Catch : Combined valuation of Zepto + Blinkit + Instamart(40% of Swiggy Valuation) ≈ $24B
So the market is already pricing in near-perfect execution.
The only open question: 2 winners… or just 1?